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RELATED INFORMATION:ARTICLES
CLIMATE AND COMPUTER MODELLING
The temperature patterns of our global oceans and the seas
around Australia influence changes in rainfall and the evolution
of our climate, which are important issues for our environment
and several primary industries.
Changes in the ocean also affect our maritime industries
such as oil and gas production.
Understanding and predicting these changes requires detail
knowledge of the ocean and of the links between marine systems
and climate.
Computer-based ocean models are now able to accurately simulate
and, in some cases, predict the temperature, and salinity,
sea level and currents of the Indian, Pacific and Southern
Oceans. These oceans most directly impact the Australian climate
and its environment.
Through work with the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre,
and the assistance of Land and Water Australia’s Climate
Variability in Agriculture Program, scientists at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research are using advance computer facilities to develop
and improve ocean models for a large variety of environmental
and climate applications. Key facilities are the High Performance
Computing and Communication Centre (HPCCC) in Melbourne, and
the Tasmanian Partnership for Advanced Computing in Hobart
and lead by the University of Tasmania.
These ocean models are able to capture those processes such
as upper ocean heat storage, that are believed to be important
influences on Australian climate. Coupled with the Bureau’s
atmospheric model, they provide an ability to predict droughts
and floods. (In its seasonal outlooks, the Bureau’s National
Climate Centre refers to the state of tropical Pacific and
Indian Ocean ocean conditions as key influences).
The results from these coupled models give primary producers
and resource managers a better basis for long-term planning
and decision-making. The coupled models are being incorporated
into the operational systems of the Bureau and will provide
regular forecasts for seasonal climate variations with lead-times
in excess of six months.
Two global ocean models are being run on the HPCCC SX-5 machines;
one with coarse resolution suited to climate studies, the
other having a finer resolution for regional research. Both
models are based on the Modular Ocean Model code developed
by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Princeton, USA).
The finer resolution model is able to simulate details of
the Leeuwin Current and the East Australian Currents, as well
as the Indonesian throughflow, all of which are important
influences on Australia.
The BLUElink> Ocean Forecasting Australia project
being developed by the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre,
CSIRO and the Royal Australian Navy centres on ocean prediction-analysis
and forecasting of day-to-day variations in ocean currents
and temperature.
The project will enable resolution and simulation of fine-scale
features such as eddies associated with topography and coastal
currents, aspects that are very important for a number of
applications, including defence.
These models also have other applications and users —
local fishing communities, primary producers and agricultural
marketing authorities, government agencies responsible for
ecosystem management, shipping and transport and risk management
in industries such as oil and gas production.
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