Why should an extra 10cm on the annual-average sea level at Fremantle foretell that an extra 2000t of Western Rock Lobster (Australia's biggest single-species fishery) will be caught in 3-4 years time?

Many theories have been proposed, the forerunner being that some aspect of a stronger-than-average Leeuwin current results in more lobster larvae being advected onshore in La Nina years.

Altimetry now allows us to routinely map mesoscale surface currents. This, in combination with the NCEP reanalysis wind fields, makes it possible to simulate the drift of lobster larvae.

We think we might have an answer now.