Project summary

“Oceans to Grains” aims at increasing the economic and environmental value of seasonal climate forecasts, targeted for the grains industry in SE Australia. We will develop a new approach to seasonal forecasting based on looking at the synoptic systems responsible for rainfall, and relating the frequency and intensity of these systems to long time-scale features of the atmosphere and ocean. At the same time a catalogue of grower responses to climate information will be assembled and updated. We will look for and exploit synergies between forecast timing and skill and management responses, thus developing a targeted forecast system that should out-perform and be more relevant than more broadly-based forecast systems. We will involve farmers from three different rainfall regions from the outset, so that we maintain a focus on practical forecasting needs, and so that farmers have ownership of, input to and benefit from the development of this work.

Project objectives

• Characterisation of synoptic rainfall mechanisms in SE Australia.
• Establish a relationship between synoptic rainfall mechanisms and the large space-scale and long time-scale atmospheric and ocean circulation.
• Quantum leap in understanding seasonal climate drivers in SE Australia.
• Collate and update information about management responses to climate information for three rainfall regimes in SE Australia relevant to the grains industry.
• Use the information above to build a seasonal forecast system tailored for specific management decisions and potential forecast skill.
• Optimise the forecast/management response relationship to obtain the best skill, value and environmental outcomes.
• On-going engagement with farmer groups in the three regions throughout the project to maintain a practical focus, to obtain real-time climate response input, to educate key farmer groups in climate and climate/management interactions, and to ground-truth potential forecast/management response options.
• Educate the general climate research community about the importance of combining climate forecasts and management responses.