Project summary

Sea-level rise is expected to be one of the most profound impacts of climate change for the countries in the Western Pacific. Sea-level related impacts are felt through extreme events, seasonal to interannual sea-level changes and long-term sea-level rise. The impacts of sea level rise are many, including the loss of amenity (e.g., loss of beaches, erosion and damage to physical assets), loss of agricultural productivity due to salt water intrusion and increasing salinity. Currently episodic flooding from sea water occurs on a number of islands during king tides, even in the absence of severe weather.

 This project will seek to define the relationships between seasonal variability and climate change impacts on sea level affecting Partner Countries, recognising that it is through natural variability that the early affects of climate change are most acutely felt. Through the use of a couple climate model (POAMA) this will lead to prototype seasonal predictions.

 These predictions could assist when making management decisions  that are effected by  seasonal changes in sea level, including an evolving risk assessment associated with extreme sea-levels in the presence of interannual variability of sea level and its long-term rise. While useful now, sea level rises projected over coming decades will mean that predictions of seasonal anomalies will increase in value.

Project objectives

• A report on the assessment of the skill of seasonal predictions of sea level anomalies for the Pacific region at lead times of one to nine months, including for specific partner countries;
• A plan for the further development of sea-level prediction (including a pathway to real-time operational products and their use in risk assessment);
• Prototype seasonal predictions for sea-level anomalies, which can be adapted for future upgrades of the seasonal prediction system.