Refereed Publications

Pook, M.J., J.S. Risbey and P.C. McIntosh, 2010: East coast lows, atmospheric blocking and rainfall: A Tasmanian perspective. IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci., 11, 012011.

Brown, J.N., P.C. McIntosh, M.J. Pook and J.S. Risbey, 2009: An investigation of the links between ENSO flavors and rainfall processes in southeastern Australia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3786-3795.

Wang, E., P. McIntosh, Q. Jiang and J. Xu, 2009: Quantifying the value of historical climate knowledge and climate forecasts using agricultural systems modelling. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9592-4.

Ummenhofer, C.C., M.H. England, P.C. McIntosh, G.A. Meyers, M.J. Pook, J.S. Risbey, A. Sen Gupta and A.S. Taschetto, 2009: What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036801.

Risbey, J.S., M.J. Pook, P.C. McIntosh, M.C. Wheeler and H.H. Hendon, 2009: On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3233-3253.

Pook, M.J., S.N. Lisson, J.S. Risbey, C.C. Ummenhofer, P.C. McIntosh and M. Rebbeck 2008: The autumn break for cropping in Southeast Australia: trends, synoptic influences and impacts on wheat yield. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 2012-2026.

Risbey, J.S., M.J. Pook, P.C. McIntosh, C.C. Ummenhofer and G.A. Meyers, 2008: Variability of synoptic features associated with cool season rainfall in southeastern Australia. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1595-1613.

Ash, A.J., P.C. McIntosh, B.R. Cullen, P.S. Carberry and M. Stafford Smith, 2007: Constraints and opportunities in applying seasonal climate forecasts in rural industries. Aust. J. Agric. Res., 58, 952-965.

McIntosh, P.C., M.J. Pook, J.S. Risbey, S.N. Lisson and M. Rebbeck, 2007: Seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture: Towards better understanding and value. Field Crops Research, 104, 130-138.

Meyers, G.A., P.C. McIntosh, L. Pigot and M.J. Pook, 2007: The years of El Nino, La Nina and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Clim., 20, 2872-2880.

Pook, M.J., P.C. McIntosh and G.A. Meyers, 2006: The synoptic decomposition of cool season rainfall in the south-eastern Australian cropping region. J. App. Met. Clim., 45, 1156-1170.

McIntosh, P.C., A.J. Ash and M. Stafford Smith, 2005: From oceans to farms: Using sea-surface temperatures in agricultural management. J. Clim., 18, 4287-4302.

McIntosh, P.C., A.J. Ash and M. Stafford Smith, 2002: Ocean-based forecasts may help farm profits. Farming Ahead, 123, 32-34.

McIntosh, P.C., A.J. Ash and M. Stafford Smith, 2001: From oceans to farms and beyond. Looking South - Managing Technology, Opportunities and the Global Environment. Proceedings of the ATSE, November 2001.

McDougall, T.J., and P.C. McIntosh, 2001: The temporal-residual mean velocity. Part II: Isopycnal interpretation and the tracer and momentum equations. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 1222-1246.

Stone, R., I.N. Smith and P.C. McIntosh, 2000: Statistical methods for deriving seasonal climate forecasts from GCM's. In: Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience, G.L. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell (Eds), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, 469pp.

Smith, I.N, P.C. McIntosh, T.J. Ansell, C.J.C. Reason and K. McInnes, 2000: Southwest Western Australian winter rainfall and its association with Indian Ocean climate variability. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1913-1930.

Schiller, A., J.S. Godfrey, P.C. McIntosh, G.A. Meyers and R. Fiedler, 2000: Interannual dynamics and thermodynamics of the Indian-Pacific Oceans. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30, 987-1012.

Schiller, A., J.S. Godfrey, P.C. McIntosh, G.A. Meyers and S.E. Wijffels, 1998: Seasonal near-surface dynamics and thermodynamics of the Indian Ocean and Indonesian Throughflow in a global general circulation model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 28, 2288-2312.

McIntosh, P.C., and S.R. Rintoul, 1997: Do box inverse models work? J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 291-308.

Karoly, D.J., P.C. McIntosh, P. Berrisford, T.J. McDougall and A.C. Hirst, 1997: Similarities of the Deacon cell in the Southern Ocean and the Ferrel Cells in the atmosphere. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 123, 519-526.

McIntosh, P.C., and T.J. McDougall, 1996: Isopycnal averaging and the residual mean circulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 26, 1655-1660.

McDougall, T.J., and P.C. McIntosh, 1996: The temporal-residual-mean velocity. Part I: Derivation and the scalar conservation equations. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 26, 2653-2665.

McDougall, T.J., A.C. Hirst, M.H. England and P.C. McIntosh, 1996: Implications of a new eddy parameterization for ocean models. Geophys. Res. Letters, 23, 2085-2088.

McIntosh, P.C., and R.B. Schahinger, 1994: Coastal-trapped wave mode fitting: Reanalysis of the Australian Coastal Experiment. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 949-965.

McIntosh, P.C., and G. Veronis, 1993: Solving underdetermined tracer inverse problems by spatial smoothing and cross-validation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 716-730.

Rintoul, S.R., and P.C. McIntosh, 1993: Ocean models for climate studies. In Modelling change in environmental systems, Eds. A.J. Jakeman, M.B. Beck and M.J. McAleer. Wiley, Chichester, 584pp.

McIntosh, P.C., and G.D. Hubbert, 1992: Ocean winds for marine modelling. Aust. Met. Mag., 40, 61-69.

McIntosh, P.C., 1990: Oceanographic data interpolation: Objective analysis and splines. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 13529-13541.

Freeland, H.J., and P.C. McIntosh, 1989: The vorticity balance on the southern British Columbia continental shelf. Atmosphere-Ocean, 27, 643-657.

McIntosh, P.C., 1987a: Comment on ‘Solution of non-linear finite-difference ocean models by optimization methods with sensitivity and observational strategy analysis’, by J.Schroter and C.Wunsch. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 17, 839-840.

McIntosh, P.C., 1987b: Systematic design of observational arrays. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 17, 885-902.

Fandry, C.B., G.D.Hubbert, and P.C.McIntosh, 1985: A comparison between predictions of a numerical model and observations of tides in Bass Strait. Aust. J. Mar. Fresh. Res., 36, 737-752.

McIntosh, P.C., 1984: Tidal modelling as an inverse problem. PhD thesis, Mathematics Dept., Monash University, Melbourne.

McIntosh, P.C., and A.F. Bennett, 1984: Open ocean modeling as an inverse  problem: M₂ tides in Bass Strait. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 14, 601-614.

Bennett, A.F., and P.C. McIntosh, 1982: Open ocean modelling as an inverse  problem: Tidal theory. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 12, 1004-1018.

 

Selected Recent Un-refereed Publications

McIntosh, P.C, M.J. Pook, J.S. Risbey, P. Hope, G. Wang and O. Alves, 2008: Australia’s regional climate drivers. CAR6 Final Report, Land and Water Australia, 31 March 2008.

McIntosh, P.C., M.J. Pook, J.S. Risbey, S.N. Lisson, M. Rebbeck and D.J. Stephens, 2007: Oceans to Grains: A New Approach to Targeted Seasonal Forecasts. CMR7 Final Report, Land and Water Australia, 15 June 2007.

McIntosh, P.C., 2006: Finding order in the chaos: Australia’s regional climate. CLIMAG, 12, 1-2.

McIntosh, P.C., M.J. Pook and J. McGregor, 2005: Study of Future and Current Climate: A Scenario for the Tasmanian Region, Stages 2 and 3. A report for Hydro Tasmania by CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, 1 December 2005.

McIntosh, P.C., 2004: SSTman – CSIRO Agricultural Prediction System v4.2. CDROM, CSIRO Marine Labs, Hobart.

Smith, I.N, S.G.Wilson, and P.C. McIntosh, 2004: Applications of seasonal predictions. Report for CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship.

Ash, A.J., M. Stafford Smith, and P.C. McIntosh, 2001: From Oceans to Farms: Integrated Management of Climate Variability. CTC16 Final Report. Land and Water Australia.

Meyers, G.A., N. Smith, J.S. Godfrey, P.C. McIntosh and A. Schiller, 2001: Extended seasonal climate predictions using a dynamical climate model. COR5 Final Report. Land and Water Australia.

Meyers, G.A., N. Smith, B.G. Hunt, J.S. Godfrey, P.C. McIntosh and A. Schiller, 1999: Development and testing of climate models for seasonal prediction for Australia. COR2 Final Report. Land and Water Australia.

McIntosh, P.C. and A. Schiller, 1998: Data assimilation for Australian climate variability studies. International WOCE newsletter, 31, 10-12.

McIntosh, P.C. 1998: Ocean model data storage. International WOCE newsletter, 31, 16-17.

Schiller, A., J.S. Godfrey, P.C. McIntosh and G.A. Meyers, 1997: A global ocean general circulation model for climate variability studies. CSIRO Marine Laboratories Report No. 227, 60pp.

Stone, R.C., I.N. Smith and P.C. McIntosh, 1997: Statistical methods for deriving seasonal climate forecasts from GCMs. In Proc. Symposium on applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems: The Australian experience. November 1997, Brisbane, pp. 10-13.

McIntosh, P.C., G.A. Meyers, J.S. Godfrey and A. Schiller, 1996: The Role of the Ocean in Australia's Climate Variability. In Proc. Second Australian Conference on Agricultural Meteorology, University of Queensland, Brisbane, October 1996, pp. 107-110.